Forecast flood risk ahead of events

Use weather forecasts, river data, and hydrological models to predict where and when flooding will occur, giving communities time to prepare.

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What is this?

Use weather forecasts, river data, and hydrological models to predict where and when flooding will occur, giving communities time to prepare.

When does it happen?

Activated when weather forecasts indicate heavy rainfall, storm surges, or rapid snowmelt. Lead times range from hours to 10 days.

What data is used?

Weather radar, numerical weather predictions, upstream river levels, soil moisture, tidal forecasts, historical flood data.

What decision is made?

“Is flooding likely? Where? When? How severe?”

What action follows?

Issue flood warnings; pre-position emergency resources; close flood barriers; advise evacuation where necessary.

Related decision patterns

Proven strategies for handling this scenario:

Predictive modelling systems

Reacting to events after they happen costs lives and money. Decision-makers need advance warning of floods, droughts, and system failures.

Case studies

Real-world examples of this use case in practice:

Water • Bangladesh

Flood Early Warning System

National flood forecasting and warning system that has dramatically reduced flood deaths in one of the world’s most flood-prone countries.

170M protected • 10-day forecast • 90%+ death reduction

Water • Netherlands

Netherlands Delta Programme

National climate adaptation strategy protecting the Netherlands from flooding and ensuring freshwater supply through 2100.

€1.5B/yr • Through 2100 • 17M protected

Water • Japan

Tokyo Flood Control System (G-Cans)

The world’s largest underground flood diversion facility protecting metropolitan Tokyo from extreme flooding.

¥230B • 6.3 km tunnel • 200 m³/s capacity

Thames Flood Barrier

The world’s second-largest moveable flood barrier protecting 1.4 million Londoners from tidal surge flooding.

£534M • 520 m • 200+ closures